NVI Technical College Information

Economic Feasibility

Global exports grew from 13% of global GDP in 1970 to 34% in 2012

Foreign trade

and have stabilized at that level. More recently, the pattern of trade

Recent US trade data has been surprisingly strong considering that

has changed. US imports from China have fallen, and US imports

both China and Europe — two major drivers of the global economy —

from other Asian countries are growing.

are experiencing slower than expected growth. After contributing to

growth for the last four quarters, net exports were slightly negative

This suggests that, while trade patterns may be changing, the United

in Q2 2023. And that ’ s despite a relatively strong dollar coupled with

States remains as fully connected to the rest of the world as it has

high inflation. Petroleum products are part of the story. But exports

A

been in the past.12 In 2022, exports accounted for 8.6% of GDP,

of automobiles and related products, consumer goods, and capital

above the 8.2% average in the five years before the pandemic.

goods have all grown surprisingly fast over the past year.

Government policy

Our forecast shows US exports growing at a good pace over the

Funding the federal government remains a source of significant risk

five-year horizon as the dollar falls (due to a reduction in global risk)

for the economy. Although the budget deal provided an agreed

and growth picks up abroad. Imports, however, will be restrained by

upon blueprint for House and Senate spending bills, it is becoming

the fall in demand for consumer durables.

less likely that both houses can agree on the details for the 12

appropriations bills by October 1. There is a risk — accounted for in

There is a lot of talk about “ deglobalization, ” meaning a reversal of

our recession scenario — that the US government could experience a

the dramatic increase in international trade that occurred in the past

shutdown.

few decades.

Source: Deloitte

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