NVI Technical College Information

Economic Feasibility

Now, recession fears are falling. The August National Association for

United States Economic Outlook

Business Economics Policy Survey found that two-thirds of the

United States Economic Forecast Q3 2023

panelists are confident of a “ soft landing. ”

The Q3 2023 forecast is optimistic, reflecting increasing signs of a

“ soft landing ” for the US economy. But risks are still anticipated to be

The Wall Street Journal ’ s survey of economic forecasters found a

relatively high; the full impact of the Fed ’ s tightening may not have

drop in forecasters ’ probability of a recession. It certainly looks like

been felt, leaving us to put the chances of recession at around 20%.

an outbreak of surprising optimism from dismal scientists.

A

A case of optimism?

A cynic might assume that optimistic economists are a sure signal of

Starting in early 2022, talk of recession was in the air. That summer,

a downturn, but the optimism reflects reality.

internet searches for “ recession ” peaked at a level that was more

than 20% above the level of searches when the pandemic started in

Even if monetary lags are “ long and variable, ” most economists

March 2020.

would have expected a 5-percentage-point rise in the funds rate

over such a short time period to have slowed the economy more

Some well-known economists had argued that inflation would only

than what we have seen so far.

drop if the unemployment rate rose substantially. But inflation has

moderated, yet no recession has occurred. The labor market

And inflation readings during the summer were low enough to

continues to grow, and the unemployment rate remains at

suggest that despite continued issues in some sectors, overall price

extremely low rates.

inflation was under control.

Source: Deloitte

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